Battle Calculation Theorycrafting:SWOE
Ah war and the sounds of our defeated foes beneath our blade. At least we hope it's our foes and not us under that blade. Let us discuss you and I how we might better understand which it is when all is said and done.
The information contained on this page is a composite of both officially released information and information gleaned from hundreds of battle results on all Plarium games. Understand that Plarium will not release the full algorithm. Nor are we likely to figure out the algorithm 100%. Part of the fun of playing these games is that we don't know all the details. But let us take a healthy crack at understanding it shall we?
The Short Version
Battle losses are attributed in complementary percentages that add up to roughly 100% as determined by the relative strengths of the two sides in combat. What that means is that if the attacker has a strength of 100 and the defender has a strength of 200 then the attacker will lose roughly 66% of their force because their army only represents 33% of the total fighting strength brought to bear. Likewise the defender will only lose roughly 33% of their force because they have the overwhelming majority of power at 66%. Note we are talking about bottom line strength after all modifications NOT number of troops. 1000 Javelineers (18k unmodified Defense) wouldn't have a prayer against 100 Agema Horseman (168,000 unmodified Offense) despite outnumbering the enemy 10:1.
Offense is actually quite straight forward. Simply take the amount of a unit present and multiply that by the unit's modified offense value. When we say modified, we mean the offense value after Agreement adjustments. Then add up each of these totals for each type of unit present to get your total offense value. Offense Champions throw a small complications in to the calculation but not too difficult. Each champion's strength is equal to it's base offense + a modification the units it commands. To determine the modification you count the unused regular units it could command (each unit is used only once) up to the maximum amount of units that can be commanded and add that value to the base value. For example the Spartan Sminias has a base value of 588 and a bonus value of 42 for each Spartan Hoplite. If you had 10 Spartan Hoplites and no other uncommanded light infantry units present, then the bonus value would be 42 * 10 = 420 leading to a 588 + 420 = 1008 Offense. If you had a full 50 Veteran Spartan Hoplites than you would see the maximum value of 2250 added to 588 giving a maximum value of 2838. In either case total offense is a straight sum of the values of all units present at face value*.
Defense is a bit more complicated because each unit has four different values depending on the type of unit it faces up against. If it only faces one type of units then the calculation is as simple as offense just using the specified defense value for that type of unit. Thus if the offense force only contains Cavalry you would just use the Cavalry defense value and add things up as per the offense values. If however the offense forces are a mix of several types then things get a little confusing and there is some disagreement as to how to determine which value to use. One theory is that you match up highest value to offense units on a 1 for 1 basis. For example if there are 100 cavalry units, you would match those up to the 100 defense units with the highest defense values against Cavalry and so forth. A second theory is that the actual defense value is proportionally assigned based on the number of each type of unit in the offense force. For example, if 50% of the offense force is Light Infantry than either 50% of the defense units present would use their Light Infantry values or the final defense value of a unit will have a 50% weight toward light infantry. Say we had 50% Light Infantry and 50% Cavalry then the calculation for an unmodified Trojan Thorakite would look like this Defense = (380 * .5) + (380 * 0) + (500 * 0) + (400 * .5) giving a final value for each Thorakite as 390. Things are further obfuscated on the defense side because the final defense value is modified by either Base Defense or Pantheon Modifiers in the event of PvP and likely hidden modifiers in the event of PvE. What we find in the end is that regardless of which method you use above, you can indeed isolate loss % with some degree of accuracy but not attain 100% accuracy due to variables beyond your control and knowledge. Thus far no system as show to be full proof, but in most cases they come close enough to give the person in the know a serious advantage against the unwitting enemy.
Once the sums are arrived at loss % can be closely approximated with these simple complimentary formulas.
Offense Loss % = Total Defense / (Total Defense + Total Offense)
and Defense Lost % = Total Offense / (Total Defense + Total Offense)
Understand that the actual numbers may total > 100% due to hidden modifiers and inaccuracy in the calculations due to missing information from the actual algorithm. Again though, they get close enough for most requirements. Also loss %'s are applied to each spate unit type individually. i.e. Veteran Mounted Peltast, Mounted Peltest, Peltests...etc.
Further since the two sides are complimentary you can estimate defense strength based on a failed battle report by working backwards in the formula.
- Calculate your loss % by selecting the type of troop you sent the largest amount of and dividing total sent by total lost.
- Calculate your offense total as per the Offense section above.
- Plug those numbers in to the following rearranged formula from above and solve for Total Defense.
- Subtract the enemy losses from the Total Defense to get an idea of remaining defense forces and understand that their disposition will be proportional to the losses (i.e. if most of their losses were Cavalry then most of their defense is likewise Cavalry).
(Offense Loss % * Total Offense) / (1 - Offense Loss %) = Total Defense